Who will make the six, and who will win The Grand Final?

With seven rounds remaining in Super League XIII, we are approaching the final straight. The hard work begins now for teams that believe they can make the play offs all wanting a good run of form before the play offs begin. For the top three in Saints, Leeds and Catalan; all three can be assured of a top three placing. In which order is yet to unravel itself, but I would be very surprised if any of these three dropped into fourth. The remaining three places are likely to be battled over four teams in Wigan, Warrington, Bradford and Wakefield. With the south Yorkshire club’s form having dipped of late in the build up to their cup semi final match with Hull FC, they could be the side to miss out. And finally, mathematically every single team can still make the play offs. Looking at the table, and with six games left, bottom club Castleford need eleven points out of the remaining twelve possible to make the six. They can do it providing every single result between now and the final league game goes in their favour. It would be an astonishing achievement that happened, but realistically I very much doubt it will. In fact, I would be prepared to bet all my personal possessions against any fool who thinks otherwise.

With seven games left (eight for Wigan and Huddersfield) the remaining fixtures and their order are very important for every side if they are to make the play offs. Looking at the top three, Leeds have to play Wigan and Catalan once more. The big factor is that they are away from home against the French which is proving no mean feat for any English club this season. Catalan are also up against Wigan once more in Perpignan, so there is potentially four points there already. The big issue is that they are both against teams above and below them in the standings. Saints however, have tough fixtures against Wigan (twice), a regenerated Warrington at home and one final long journey to London. Although having just beaten Quins heavily to go top, I doubt they will be much of a threat now than what that fixture on the seventeenth of August could have been a few weeks ago. Back to Leeds, and if Warrington’s form continues into next month at the same time Leeds’ is falling faster than the Titanic, that could be a banana skin match waiting for the west Yorkshire club at the HJ Stadium. Although with that match coming straight after the semi final encounter with St Helens, it would be very hard to predict what sort of motivation Leeds will have for their following Super League game. If they lose, Warrington do not have a hope in hell. If they win then their confidence will rise and Warrington will struggle at home and in front of the Sky cameras. So apart from the matches highlighted, all three sides face a smooth ride into the play offs. But don’t be surprised if Catalan overcome Leeds and win their remaining games to go top. Their form is excellent at the moment, the only question is whether a week off for the semi finals will take away their momentum. Leeds could easily lose to the French side and Wigan to suffer more loses, but Saints have three potential banana skin games in Wigan twice, and Warrington at home. However, Saints are another side on form having just rediscovered it in time for the business end of the season. But I can see them losing only one more game before the play offs.

Looking at the scrap for the three remaining places, as mentioned, four teams are looking likely to contest them. Wigan have a game in hand against Huddersfield which should be slim pickings for them. However, they play and in-form Saints twice. The likelihood is Wigan will lose both, but it is not uncommon for them to win at least once against their rivals. Wigan also have to travel to sunny France again, which is another difficult game and one they can easily lose. And having beaten Leeds in a close game last weekend, their penultimate opponents will be out for revenge. Warrington have three big tests left, starting with Bradford on Friday. After which they face Leeds after the semi final, and then Saints the week after. Just how much will the Leeds game take out of them the week before? However, neither games are they expected to win so they wouldn’t be dropping must win competition points. Bradford are a team on the slide recently. Having won only four of their last ten games, the pressure is on Steve McNamara to turn things around. In games they should be winning, they haven’t and this run could cost them a play off place. With big games of only Warrington and Leeds remaining, they should without a doubt be making the top four when you compare the remaining fixtures of other clubs. However, not only do Warrington and Leeds possess a threat in their current run of form, but so do Hull FC, Wakefield, Quins and Hull KR. Its nervous times for the team with seven games left. And Wakefield are not exactly challenging to rule the roost at the minute. Having struggled in three of the last four games, losing two the last two, they clearly have an eye on the Challenge Cup semi final against Hull FC which could knock them back a few points giving Harlequins and Hull KR half a sniff for a late challenge. With them needing to win on Saturday against their Challenge Cup opponents, they could still be in with a shout, but don’t write them off just yet. Although having said that, five of their final six games include Bradford, Saints, Wigan, Catalan and Leeds. Their only real chance is the cup. Finally, Wigan and Warrington will battle it out of fourth place, Wakefield will fall by the wayside leaving Bradford to close the door on them and the rest of Super League.

And so, we have the bottom five left. These teams shouldn’t really be pushing for a play off spot, however stranger things have happened with Bradford’s poor run of form and Wakefield’s unbelievably hard run of final fixtures. And even if they do lose out, there is only Harlequins and Hull KR who actually have a chance. With a two point gap currently between KR and Huddersfield, I can’t imagine the birthplace of RL making the last play off spot by any means possible. The same can be said for Hull and Castleford. Although Hull still have to focus on the Challenge Cup, and Castleford are showing some real determination not to finish last, brace yourselves for an unlikely Giant-killing.

So with that all done and dusted, who will win the League Leaders Shield. Well copied the current table and entered it into my very own simulator, a spreadsheet. I then typed in what I believe to be the results for all the remaining fixtures and the possible final league standings are shown below.

Team	Played	Wins	Draws	Loses	PTS
Catalan	27	21	1	5	43
Saints	27	21	0	6	42
Leeds	27	21	0	6	42
Wigan	27	16	1	10	33
Warrington	27	16	0	11	32
Bradford	27	15	0	12	30
Wakefield	27	11	0	16	22
Harlequins	27	10	0	17	20
Hull KR	27	9	1	17	19
Huddersfield	27	8	1	18	17
Hull FC	27	7	1	19	15
Castleford	27	4	1	22	9

Catalan will not lose another game, Saints will drop only one game, most likely against Wigan while Leeds will lose only to Catalan. There will then be a huge gap between sixth and seventh as Wigan, Warrington and Bradford battle it out to see what order they will face Saints or Leeds depending on points difference.

So finally, out of those six who will win The Grand Final? Well it won’t be Catalan. Having never played intense play off rugby before, I just cannot see it happening. However, they might make Old Trafford when they have to play in the final eliminator against Leeds in Perpignan. That means St Helens will once again be crowned Super League champions once again.

Its a cruel old game, isn’t it.