Before a ball had been kicked, the 2008 World Cup was under criticism from fans and the media for its ten team tournament structure. The fact that three teams could progress into the semi finals from one group of four was scandalous, a mockery to the sport, and downright embarrassing.
And maybe it was. For those unfamiliar to modern day rugby league, we are not in a position to draw up a "fair" tournament and expect attendances, revenue and TV audiences to remain consistent. The 2008 World Cup was a success because it was biased and because the top nations in rugby league were guaranteed to play each other in the early rounds keeping fans interested throughout the four week competition. It generated a good amount of interest, attendances and TV audiences for the pinnacle of international rugby league. More importantly, it generated enough money to make a profit and wet the appetite of smaller nations for more international rugby league in the near future. So the news this week that the 2013 World Cup will consist of 14 nations, with 12 being granted automatic qualification, should not be criticised until we have the full facts about the tournament structure.
Rugby League hasn’t been afraid of introducing innovative ideas to draw in new fans and dive into fresh territories, all in the name of expansion. The Magic Weekend was considered by the Premier League, albeit on a larger international scale, in that each team plays one more league game on neutral territory. This shows that the Rugby Football League and the Rugby League International Federation must be doing something right if the smartest businessmen in world sport want to copy an idea from a small sport from the north of England. So what new hair-brained scheme must the International Federation some up with to make the World Cup an even bigger success? Here is my ideal tournament structure for a fourteen team competition.
They can start with including the ten teams that competed in the 2008 tournament. That leaves the RLIF a choice of three teams for two remaining automatic places. The most realistic choices would be between Wales (the current European Cup holders,) Cook Islands (who surprised everyone to reach the 2009 Pacific Cup final,) or Lebanon who earned a massive amount of credit from neutral fans for their performances in the qualifying process for the 2008 World Cup.
It’s important for the top three teams to play each other early and carefully seed the competition so that interest is created early on in the tournament. Therefore a ‘Super Group’ is the only way to go. Include Australia, New Zealand, England and the fourth team from the 2011 Four Nations tournament, which would be the last before the World Cup. From there the remaining ten teams are split into one group of four and two groups of three. Have three teams qualify from the groups of four and one from the two groups of three leaving eight teams remaining in the quarter finals. Teams should be carefully seeded to keep TV interest and try to prevent a team whitewashing another.
The groups of three should be the sides of the lowest quality, including the two qualifiers in each group. The winners of the groups of three (pools three and four) will play the winners of the two groups of four (pools one and two.) The runners up from pools one and two will play the team finishing third in both groups. Moving onto the semi finals it would be the winner of those games that meet each other in the first semi final, with winners of the first two quarter finals meeting in the remaining semi final.
The above tournament structure is only a theory, but following the same style of the 2008 competition in seeding the top teams, it will guarantee competitive games as well as giving the better sides in pools one and two an advantage. As I’ve mentioned countless times already, TV audiences and revenue is what will make the tournament a success in this country. The aim is to build on the success of the 2008 competition and provide international rugby league with a secure long term future.
Saturday 27 February 2010
Power play doesn't work.
The NRL Indigenous All Stars defeated the NRL All Stars 16-12 in a high intense game at Skilled Park last week. While the game signalled the end of Wendell Sailor's career, it kick started that of Sam Burgess' who was called into the NRL All Star side without making his first grade début for South Sydney. It was encouraging to see that he didn't show himself up unlike so many British players plying their trade on the other side of the world.
The match was one of many trials and tribulations, Sam Burgess' appearance was one of the less significant ones on a night that could see the beginning of a new era for the sport of rugby league. Considering the game was merely an exhibition game, similar to that of the NFL Pro Bowl or the NBA All Star game, it gave the organisers a chance to implement and test a set of new rules designed to make the game more appealing. Well, when I say appealing, I actually mean similar to American Football.
The big changes were to split the game into four quarters and the introduction of a power play opportunity after a try is scored. While the split into four quarters may also have been down to the fact the Gold Coast is one of the hottest places on earth in mid February. It also gave Channel Nine, the host broadcaster, a perfect chance for extra revenue through advertising.
I prefer to see rugby league split into two halfs, so with this in mind I would rather see the game be stopped for five minutes after a break in play mid way through the half for what can be called a 'water break'. It wouldn't be the first time this has happened in both the NRL or Super League. The game can then restart where it left off without a needless kick off to restart the half.
Secondly, I don't think the power play worked and showed to be another gimmick to draw in the fans.
The idea was that play restarted on a white circle 25 metres from the try line. The try scoring team had one play in an attempt to score another try. If play was interfered with a knock on, penalty to the defending side, an interception or a tackle then the game would be restarted with a kick off as usual. The attacking team were not allowed to kick the ball, which meant at one point the attacking team was forced back to almost their halfway line.
I think the biggest flaw in this was that too many players were on the field. Yes, the defending team were forced to lose their fullback to make it 13 v 12, but it really wasn't much of an advantage. The way it was played and the restarts made it look like a training session. This aspect of the game just didn't appeal to me.
I'm happy to see these new rules implemented in what is essentially an exhibition game, but under no circumstances should the rules be brought into the NRL competition and further the rule interpretations between Super League and the Australian game. With the build up to the 2013 World Cup beginning this week, its important that we build on the success of the 2008 tournament, and not lose the credibility of the game before a ball has been kicked.
Overall the quality of the All-Star game was impressive. For a game played in 30 degree heat at the peak of the Australian summer on the Gold Coast, it was a credit to see these men provide such quality entertainment in testing conditions.
The match was one of many trials and tribulations, Sam Burgess' appearance was one of the less significant ones on a night that could see the beginning of a new era for the sport of rugby league. Considering the game was merely an exhibition game, similar to that of the NFL Pro Bowl or the NBA All Star game, it gave the organisers a chance to implement and test a set of new rules designed to make the game more appealing. Well, when I say appealing, I actually mean similar to American Football.
The big changes were to split the game into four quarters and the introduction of a power play opportunity after a try is scored. While the split into four quarters may also have been down to the fact the Gold Coast is one of the hottest places on earth in mid February. It also gave Channel Nine, the host broadcaster, a perfect chance for extra revenue through advertising.
I prefer to see rugby league split into two halfs, so with this in mind I would rather see the game be stopped for five minutes after a break in play mid way through the half for what can be called a 'water break'. It wouldn't be the first time this has happened in both the NRL or Super League. The game can then restart where it left off without a needless kick off to restart the half.
Secondly, I don't think the power play worked and showed to be another gimmick to draw in the fans.
The idea was that play restarted on a white circle 25 metres from the try line. The try scoring team had one play in an attempt to score another try. If play was interfered with a knock on, penalty to the defending side, an interception or a tackle then the game would be restarted with a kick off as usual. The attacking team were not allowed to kick the ball, which meant at one point the attacking team was forced back to almost their halfway line.
I think the biggest flaw in this was that too many players were on the field. Yes, the defending team were forced to lose their fullback to make it 13 v 12, but it really wasn't much of an advantage. The way it was played and the restarts made it look like a training session. This aspect of the game just didn't appeal to me.
I'm happy to see these new rules implemented in what is essentially an exhibition game, but under no circumstances should the rules be brought into the NRL competition and further the rule interpretations between Super League and the Australian game. With the build up to the 2013 World Cup beginning this week, its important that we build on the success of the 2008 tournament, and not lose the credibility of the game before a ball has been kicked.
Overall the quality of the All-Star game was impressive. For a game played in 30 degree heat at the peak of the Australian summer on the Gold Coast, it was a credit to see these men provide such quality entertainment in testing conditions.
Monday 8 February 2010
Super League goes global, baby!
The news that Super League is attracting record viewing and attendance figures is a very good sign that the sport has the potential to grow over the course of time. Lets not kid ourselves that we'll see RL on a par in the tabloids with football and RU in our lifetime, but steps are in place for the code to slowly become a truly national sport.
Attendance figures and viewing figures on TV are a small but significant sign that expansion is working. According to an article in this week's League Express, 350,000 watched Crusaders host Leeds and is one of the biggest audience figures for a rugby league game other than the Grand Final on Sky television.
And while we're on the topic of TV figures, the RFL have brokered a deal with America One, an American broadcast company that apparently covers the entire country. Their website can be found here and the eagle eyed of you will notice that the Super League is one of three sports advertised on the home page. For those following the game in America, tune in at 7pm eastern time every Thursday in an attempt to see the St Helens V Hull FC game! A week later, Castleford host Warrington at the same time.
This is only good news for the sport to attract itself to wealthy businessmen in the States that would be interested in investing in our sport, or even better, invest in the US domestic league which is still attempting to make itself a fully professional league.
Attendance figures and viewing figures on TV are a small but significant sign that expansion is working. According to an article in this week's League Express, 350,000 watched Crusaders host Leeds and is one of the biggest audience figures for a rugby league game other than the Grand Final on Sky television.
And while we're on the topic of TV figures, the RFL have brokered a deal with America One, an American broadcast company that apparently covers the entire country. Their website can be found here and the eagle eyed of you will notice that the Super League is one of three sports advertised on the home page. For those following the game in America, tune in at 7pm eastern time every Thursday in an attempt to see the St Helens V Hull FC game! A week later, Castleford host Warrington at the same time.
This is only good news for the sport to attract itself to wealthy businessmen in the States that would be interested in investing in our sport, or even better, invest in the US domestic league which is still attempting to make itself a fully professional league.
Round one completed.
Super dooper league is back in full swing.
There were some shocks in the first proper round of Super League to begin 2010. Castleford came from 10-6 behind at half time to leave the Champions pointless in the second half and go on to win 24-10. Leeds seem to be focusing on their World Club Challenge match against Melbourne as it is idiotic for any team to think that at 10-6 up they can waltz away with victory. The players are out to regain their world title crown and in doing so, they are sacrificing the opening league games in order to prepare for the big game. That said, look out Wakefield next week. You could be in for a bumpy ride with players to prove two weeks before the big day.
Huddersfield played very well against Bradford, in a game I was expecting Matt Orford and Heath L'Estrange to tear the Huddersfield defence in two. It does pile pressure on Steve McNamaram early in the season after a dire performance and dissatisfaction from the fans stretching as far back as 2008. Bradford play St Helens next week at Odsal. More on that game later in the week, which could spell the beginning of the end for one coach.
Wigan brushed Crusaders aside in a thrashing that will spell concern for Brian Noble. After a promising start, this defeat could be bump back to reality as it shows the club and playing staff will have to dig deep in order to gain lost respect this season.
Hull KR beat Salford comfortably at New Craven Park, while Wakefield just got past Catalan in a competitive eight point win against the French side, who were missing star-man Thomas Bosc. Warrington also put 58 points past Harlequins, who must be wondering what happened to them as they failed to score even a point leaving them bottom of the table at this early stage.
The game of the week was difficult to see, but that was mainly thanks to an awful lot of fog at Knowsley Road on Saturday night. However it was a pleasure to see Saints defeated so comfortably as the opening game went from bad to worse for last year's beaten grand finalists. Hull FC made the best of the awful conditions, and outplayed Saints in every department for over an hour. Mick Potter said after the match that his side didn;t make the most of their chances. The truth is, Saints didn't create any chances and sufferend in a humiliating defeat.
Pity nobody saw it.
There were some shocks in the first proper round of Super League to begin 2010. Castleford came from 10-6 behind at half time to leave the Champions pointless in the second half and go on to win 24-10. Leeds seem to be focusing on their World Club Challenge match against Melbourne as it is idiotic for any team to think that at 10-6 up they can waltz away with victory. The players are out to regain their world title crown and in doing so, they are sacrificing the opening league games in order to prepare for the big game. That said, look out Wakefield next week. You could be in for a bumpy ride with players to prove two weeks before the big day.
Huddersfield played very well against Bradford, in a game I was expecting Matt Orford and Heath L'Estrange to tear the Huddersfield defence in two. It does pile pressure on Steve McNamaram early in the season after a dire performance and dissatisfaction from the fans stretching as far back as 2008. Bradford play St Helens next week at Odsal. More on that game later in the week, which could spell the beginning of the end for one coach.
Wigan brushed Crusaders aside in a thrashing that will spell concern for Brian Noble. After a promising start, this defeat could be bump back to reality as it shows the club and playing staff will have to dig deep in order to gain lost respect this season.
Hull KR beat Salford comfortably at New Craven Park, while Wakefield just got past Catalan in a competitive eight point win against the French side, who were missing star-man Thomas Bosc. Warrington also put 58 points past Harlequins, who must be wondering what happened to them as they failed to score even a point leaving them bottom of the table at this early stage.
The game of the week was difficult to see, but that was mainly thanks to an awful lot of fog at Knowsley Road on Saturday night. However it was a pleasure to see Saints defeated so comfortably as the opening game went from bad to worse for last year's beaten grand finalists. Hull FC made the best of the awful conditions, and outplayed Saints in every department for over an hour. Mick Potter said after the match that his side didn;t make the most of their chances. The truth is, Saints didn't create any chances and sufferend in a humiliating defeat.
Pity nobody saw it.
Monday 1 February 2010
Crusaders kickoff new era in style.
Crusaders finally kicked off their new season in style and in front of over 10,000 people at the Racecourse Ground. That's 9,999 more people than what other critics claimed would be at the first match.
On a pitch covered in freshly fallen snow, the Crusaders battled hard for 65 minutes until Danny McGuire led the Leeds charges onto what was a harsh 34-6 scoreline for the brave Welsh side. If it hadn't been for glaringly obvious errors under no pressure, they might have pushed Leeds all the way. Scott Donald's try should have been safely collected by the winger, instead it went straight through his legs and allowed Donald to touchdown. There was also the kicking of Michael Witt, who guided the ball safely into touch on the full on two occasions when the Crusaders desperately needed field possession.
But overall it was a promising start to the night, which was obviously spoilt by weird refereeing decisions. Ali Lauititi's first try looked dodgy on a first glance, but his second was defiantly held up over the line and should not have been awarded. I can only presume Richard Silverwood was on Leeds -24 at William Hill, who knows?
What was even more exciting for me however, was the amount of people in the stands. Over 10,000 people watched the match in Wrexham, a figure that has kept all the anti-expansionists quiet for the time being. But if the club can so much as keep half that attendance and average 4-5,000 on a weekly basis, then it will have to be said that the move to Wrexham was the right one.
However there is a long way to go in the season, and there will be plenty more written about this topic before the seasons end.
On a pitch covered in freshly fallen snow, the Crusaders battled hard for 65 minutes until Danny McGuire led the Leeds charges onto what was a harsh 34-6 scoreline for the brave Welsh side. If it hadn't been for glaringly obvious errors under no pressure, they might have pushed Leeds all the way. Scott Donald's try should have been safely collected by the winger, instead it went straight through his legs and allowed Donald to touchdown. There was also the kicking of Michael Witt, who guided the ball safely into touch on the full on two occasions when the Crusaders desperately needed field possession.
But overall it was a promising start to the night, which was obviously spoilt by weird refereeing decisions. Ali Lauititi's first try looked dodgy on a first glance, but his second was defiantly held up over the line and should not have been awarded. I can only presume Richard Silverwood was on Leeds -24 at William Hill, who knows?
What was even more exciting for me however, was the amount of people in the stands. Over 10,000 people watched the match in Wrexham, a figure that has kept all the anti-expansionists quiet for the time being. But if the club can so much as keep half that attendance and average 4-5,000 on a weekly basis, then it will have to be said that the move to Wrexham was the right one.
However there is a long way to go in the season, and there will be plenty more written about this topic before the seasons end.
Super League XV preview.
Its that time of year again. The Super League season finally kicked off in Wrexham, the first time the season has kicked off outside of England since Paris St Germain did the honors in 1996, and I for one am looking forward to what must should be a ground breaking season in all three divisions of professional rugby league in the UK and France.
The focus off attention off the field will be on both the Crusaders RL (I'm still going to call them Celtic) and South Wales Scorpions (the scorpions bit wont be written ever again.) Both teams came under the spotlight after Celtic moved from their home in Bridgend to move to Newport, then without playing a game and in the space of a few weeks got sold off and moved up north to Wrexham to provide the football club with an extra source of income.
On the field its a case of somebody stopping Leeds making it four straight Super League titles, and becoming the most successful team to date in the Super League era. It'll be a tough ask for the remaining thirteen teams, as Leeds seem to be getting better on paper each year. They have made some enormous signings, and have a tendency to back up all the pre-season hype with some tremendous performances over the course of the season. The only domestic title eluding them is the Challenge Cup, which they haven't won since 1999 which non of the current Leeds squad.
St Helens will have every intention of avenging their previous three Grand Final defeats, and the signing of Sia Soliola will boost their chances of a fifth straight appearance at Old Trafford. But overall I feel the Leeds/Saints GF partnership will finally be broken in 2010 and its Saints that will break up the marriage. They didn't look the same team in 2009 under Mick Potter as his first year as head coach, and the old guard of Leon Pryce, Paul Wellens and Keiron Cunningham didn't look the same as they did in the three years before 2009. There wasn't the same spark or cohesion that Daniel Anderson managed to install into the side, and I think Saints' reign in the top two is coming to an end.
But who will replace them and challenge Leeds for the title? Wigan? Warrington? Hull KR? If I had five pounds, my bet for 2010 dark horse would be Catalan. They have signed some very useful talent to add to their already good side. The signing of the year would have to be Dallas Johnson. He will challenge Malcolm Alker for the most tackles in a season, as he regularly makes over forty tackles a game in the NRL and State of Origin. Throw in their other signing of former New Zealand centre Setaimata Sa and they have a side that can go one better in 2010. They're the type of side that could seriously give Warrington a run for the Challenge Cup come August.
Speaking of Warrington, they should also have high aspirations of challenging for Super League as well. The signings of fringe England players Richie Myler and Ryan Atkins shows that Warrington can attract not just older and experience talent, but they can attract and invest in the long term. Now they have achieved their goal of winning the Challenge Cup after seven years building the foundations, they can become another Leeds or Saints of 2006 two or three years from now. Looking towards the start of 2010, the added signing of David Solomona will give Warrington added bulk into their already strong looking pack of Adrian Morley, Paul Wood and Gareth Carvell. I expect them to make the top four along with Leeds, St Helens and Wigan.
Wigan have high expectations every year, and for the past five years have failed to achieve those ambitions. They are the most successful British club, and with such a tag the coaching job can be even harder than at any other club. In my opinion Brian Noble was unfairly treated last year, and his replacement, Michael Maguire, will have to be careful as to not upset the board behind the scenes. They have brought in Paul Deacon, no doubt as a master the the young apprentice called Sam Thomkins. They are always a threat and very intimidating, but they need to stop losing big matches in order for the glory to return to the cherry and white.
From Lancashire to Yorkshire, and as you cross the pennies on the M62 the first town you come to is Huddersfield. Under Nathan Brown last year they were sensational. Finished third in the regular season but just couldn't handle the pressure of a massive knock-out match. They lost the Challenge Cup final, and unexpectedly bowed out of the play offs early in week two to Catalan. This year they'll want to go one better, and they haven't recruited too badly in order to achieve that goal. Their star signing is David Fa'alogo, the former New Zealand and South Sydney player. They also welcome back Brad Drew, who carried Huddersfield to the play offs in 2007. After two years at Wakefield he has returned to see the town which gave birth to rugby league achieve more success. Except they won't make the top four having narrowly over achieved last year.
Further down the M62 you pass Bradford. Steve McNamara is standing tall after some major signings that easily could change the face of Super League. Considering they have been on the slide since Brian Noble left in 2006, they have attracted Matt Orford, Heath L'Estrange from Manly and Brett Kearney from Cronulla. L'Estrange will add a bit of aggression and bulk into the Bradford back row and is a direct replacement for Sam Burgess, while Orford in his prime was better than Paul Deacon ever will be. While I don't think you will see a better Matt Orford than when he was at Melbourne and his early career at Manly, but I do think he is more than capable of single handedly guiding McNamara's side into the top five or six.
Bradford to Wakefield is the route Terry Newton has travelled this winter, and I can't help but think it'll be business as usual for Wakefield this year. Last year they had two people to play for in Adam Watene and Leon Walker who both tragically died doing what they loved, and when I say business as usual, I mean they'll be struggling at the bottom half of the league. I do rate John Kear as a moderately successful coach, who has transformed countless clubs around with small finances. However their squad this year looks like a whos who of players past their prime and top four rejects. Only Danny Brough looks capable of shining, but he on his own can't transform Wakefield's woes this year.
Swiftly moving onto Castleford, and it'll be a similar story at Whelden Road. Terry Matterson has only brought in two players in Paul Jackson and Steve Snitch, who were average at best for Huddersfield and Wakefield respectively. Michael Shenton and Joe Westerman both need good years this year, as I though Westerman was a little too quiet for my liking and failed to get a game for England after such promise two years ago. Shenton on the other hand had a decent season, but is probably wasted in a team well below his standards.
Lingering below both those two sides will be the cockneys. Harlequins are often questioned along with Celtic as to why they are in Super League, never mind being in existence in the first place. Many people believe they bring nothing to the sport after thirty years, originating as Fulham and playing at Craven Cottage. I expect their performances to be a little below par this year yet again. They seem to have been struggling to attract any half decent players from up north, while focusing their attentions in developing players down south. While that's good for the longer term, short term their star signings for this season seem to be Ben Jones-Bishop, Oliver Wilkes and Andy Ellis. They won't improve under Brian McDermott, in fact they might be standing still if he is in charge for a few more years.
From one expansion club to another, and Crudaders/Celtic will have to do it even tougher this time round. I'd say there were a few more signings yet to come, and they have already played one game so need to get pen to paper pretty quickly. But there are promising signs. Their performance against Leeds was fairly good for an hour, while they do have promise in Michael Witt and experience in Gareth Raynor and Jamie Thackeray. It'll be interesting how they perform on and off the field, with a close eye on their attendances and marketing efforts to attract the nice folk from north Wales. If they can perform the way they did against Leeds for the rest of the season, they will give a few teams a mighty shock or two.
Salford promise progression and improvement every year, but I can't help but think they're on a hiding to nothing. While they did managed to beat more teams other than Celtic last year, they will do even better to move up a position in the league. An unlikely task in my opinion. They no longer have Richie Myler, but the progress of Stefan Ratchford should see him being touted as a future star, obviously not at Salford. They seem to be a dumping ground for fringe players in other teams to learn what Super League is like. Both Matty Smith and Steve Tyrer are on loan from St Helens and can't be far from pulling on that red vee shirt themselves. I'm fairly confident an academy side could beat their first team, and confidence is something Shaun McRae will have to be stocking up on to have any hope this season.
Last but by no means least, we have the two Hull teams. I'd like to end on a positive, so its best to start with Hull FC. Richard Agar is on his very last legs. If he can't get this side playing together then his time has to be up. However despite all the experience in Shaun Berrigan, Sean Long, Mark O'Meley and the one and only Craig Fitzgibbon, all of these players will soon be cashing in their pensions. It'll be difficult to keep these four players on the pitch at the same time without arthritis playing up on them. But in all seriousness, if Agar can pull them together and wrap the four older players in cotton wool on a weekly basis then they can make the top eight. It's fielding a consistent side every week that will be Agar's problem, and good luck to him because it's only a matter of time before he is out of the door.
Across the river Hull and we come to east Hull, twinned with Basra, Iraq. It's also the home to Hull KR who should be aiming to improve on 2009. In my opinion, they struggled to come to terms with their extra time loss to Warrington in the Challenge Cup, and lost the following five out of seven games. Other than that, it was a terrific season and one they can really bounce onwards from. They have kept all the key players that did so well for them this year in Shaun Briscoe, Michael Dobson, Ben Galea and Kris Welham. Justin Morgan is a great coach who has learnt a lot in a short space of time since joining the club from Toulouse in 2005 and would be my pick for the next England coach.
Finally here is how the league will look come September, if all is predicted well. Which it wasn't!
Leeds
Wigan
St Helens
Warrington
Catalan
Huddersfield
Hull KR
Bradford
Hull FC
Wakefield
Castleford
Harlequins
Salford
Crusaders RL
The focus off attention off the field will be on both the Crusaders RL (I'm still going to call them Celtic) and South Wales Scorpions (the scorpions bit wont be written ever again.) Both teams came under the spotlight after Celtic moved from their home in Bridgend to move to Newport, then without playing a game and in the space of a few weeks got sold off and moved up north to Wrexham to provide the football club with an extra source of income.
On the field its a case of somebody stopping Leeds making it four straight Super League titles, and becoming the most successful team to date in the Super League era. It'll be a tough ask for the remaining thirteen teams, as Leeds seem to be getting better on paper each year. They have made some enormous signings, and have a tendency to back up all the pre-season hype with some tremendous performances over the course of the season. The only domestic title eluding them is the Challenge Cup, which they haven't won since 1999 which non of the current Leeds squad.
St Helens will have every intention of avenging their previous three Grand Final defeats, and the signing of Sia Soliola will boost their chances of a fifth straight appearance at Old Trafford. But overall I feel the Leeds/Saints GF partnership will finally be broken in 2010 and its Saints that will break up the marriage. They didn't look the same team in 2009 under Mick Potter as his first year as head coach, and the old guard of Leon Pryce, Paul Wellens and Keiron Cunningham didn't look the same as they did in the three years before 2009. There wasn't the same spark or cohesion that Daniel Anderson managed to install into the side, and I think Saints' reign in the top two is coming to an end.
But who will replace them and challenge Leeds for the title? Wigan? Warrington? Hull KR? If I had five pounds, my bet for 2010 dark horse would be Catalan. They have signed some very useful talent to add to their already good side. The signing of the year would have to be Dallas Johnson. He will challenge Malcolm Alker for the most tackles in a season, as he regularly makes over forty tackles a game in the NRL and State of Origin. Throw in their other signing of former New Zealand centre Setaimata Sa and they have a side that can go one better in 2010. They're the type of side that could seriously give Warrington a run for the Challenge Cup come August.
Speaking of Warrington, they should also have high aspirations of challenging for Super League as well. The signings of fringe England players Richie Myler and Ryan Atkins shows that Warrington can attract not just older and experience talent, but they can attract and invest in the long term. Now they have achieved their goal of winning the Challenge Cup after seven years building the foundations, they can become another Leeds or Saints of 2006 two or three years from now. Looking towards the start of 2010, the added signing of David Solomona will give Warrington added bulk into their already strong looking pack of Adrian Morley, Paul Wood and Gareth Carvell. I expect them to make the top four along with Leeds, St Helens and Wigan.
Wigan have high expectations every year, and for the past five years have failed to achieve those ambitions. They are the most successful British club, and with such a tag the coaching job can be even harder than at any other club. In my opinion Brian Noble was unfairly treated last year, and his replacement, Michael Maguire, will have to be careful as to not upset the board behind the scenes. They have brought in Paul Deacon, no doubt as a master the the young apprentice called Sam Thomkins. They are always a threat and very intimidating, but they need to stop losing big matches in order for the glory to return to the cherry and white.
From Lancashire to Yorkshire, and as you cross the pennies on the M62 the first town you come to is Huddersfield. Under Nathan Brown last year they were sensational. Finished third in the regular season but just couldn't handle the pressure of a massive knock-out match. They lost the Challenge Cup final, and unexpectedly bowed out of the play offs early in week two to Catalan. This year they'll want to go one better, and they haven't recruited too badly in order to achieve that goal. Their star signing is David Fa'alogo, the former New Zealand and South Sydney player. They also welcome back Brad Drew, who carried Huddersfield to the play offs in 2007. After two years at Wakefield he has returned to see the town which gave birth to rugby league achieve more success. Except they won't make the top four having narrowly over achieved last year.
Further down the M62 you pass Bradford. Steve McNamara is standing tall after some major signings that easily could change the face of Super League. Considering they have been on the slide since Brian Noble left in 2006, they have attracted Matt Orford, Heath L'Estrange from Manly and Brett Kearney from Cronulla. L'Estrange will add a bit of aggression and bulk into the Bradford back row and is a direct replacement for Sam Burgess, while Orford in his prime was better than Paul Deacon ever will be. While I don't think you will see a better Matt Orford than when he was at Melbourne and his early career at Manly, but I do think he is more than capable of single handedly guiding McNamara's side into the top five or six.
Bradford to Wakefield is the route Terry Newton has travelled this winter, and I can't help but think it'll be business as usual for Wakefield this year. Last year they had two people to play for in Adam Watene and Leon Walker who both tragically died doing what they loved, and when I say business as usual, I mean they'll be struggling at the bottom half of the league. I do rate John Kear as a moderately successful coach, who has transformed countless clubs around with small finances. However their squad this year looks like a whos who of players past their prime and top four rejects. Only Danny Brough looks capable of shining, but he on his own can't transform Wakefield's woes this year.
Swiftly moving onto Castleford, and it'll be a similar story at Whelden Road. Terry Matterson has only brought in two players in Paul Jackson and Steve Snitch, who were average at best for Huddersfield and Wakefield respectively. Michael Shenton and Joe Westerman both need good years this year, as I though Westerman was a little too quiet for my liking and failed to get a game for England after such promise two years ago. Shenton on the other hand had a decent season, but is probably wasted in a team well below his standards.
Lingering below both those two sides will be the cockneys. Harlequins are often questioned along with Celtic as to why they are in Super League, never mind being in existence in the first place. Many people believe they bring nothing to the sport after thirty years, originating as Fulham and playing at Craven Cottage. I expect their performances to be a little below par this year yet again. They seem to have been struggling to attract any half decent players from up north, while focusing their attentions in developing players down south. While that's good for the longer term, short term their star signings for this season seem to be Ben Jones-Bishop, Oliver Wilkes and Andy Ellis. They won't improve under Brian McDermott, in fact they might be standing still if he is in charge for a few more years.
From one expansion club to another, and Crudaders/Celtic will have to do it even tougher this time round. I'd say there were a few more signings yet to come, and they have already played one game so need to get pen to paper pretty quickly. But there are promising signs. Their performance against Leeds was fairly good for an hour, while they do have promise in Michael Witt and experience in Gareth Raynor and Jamie Thackeray. It'll be interesting how they perform on and off the field, with a close eye on their attendances and marketing efforts to attract the nice folk from north Wales. If they can perform the way they did against Leeds for the rest of the season, they will give a few teams a mighty shock or two.
Salford promise progression and improvement every year, but I can't help but think they're on a hiding to nothing. While they did managed to beat more teams other than Celtic last year, they will do even better to move up a position in the league. An unlikely task in my opinion. They no longer have Richie Myler, but the progress of Stefan Ratchford should see him being touted as a future star, obviously not at Salford. They seem to be a dumping ground for fringe players in other teams to learn what Super League is like. Both Matty Smith and Steve Tyrer are on loan from St Helens and can't be far from pulling on that red vee shirt themselves. I'm fairly confident an academy side could beat their first team, and confidence is something Shaun McRae will have to be stocking up on to have any hope this season.
Last but by no means least, we have the two Hull teams. I'd like to end on a positive, so its best to start with Hull FC. Richard Agar is on his very last legs. If he can't get this side playing together then his time has to be up. However despite all the experience in Shaun Berrigan, Sean Long, Mark O'Meley and the one and only Craig Fitzgibbon, all of these players will soon be cashing in their pensions. It'll be difficult to keep these four players on the pitch at the same time without arthritis playing up on them. But in all seriousness, if Agar can pull them together and wrap the four older players in cotton wool on a weekly basis then they can make the top eight. It's fielding a consistent side every week that will be Agar's problem, and good luck to him because it's only a matter of time before he is out of the door.
Across the river Hull and we come to east Hull, twinned with Basra, Iraq. It's also the home to Hull KR who should be aiming to improve on 2009. In my opinion, they struggled to come to terms with their extra time loss to Warrington in the Challenge Cup, and lost the following five out of seven games. Other than that, it was a terrific season and one they can really bounce onwards from. They have kept all the key players that did so well for them this year in Shaun Briscoe, Michael Dobson, Ben Galea and Kris Welham. Justin Morgan is a great coach who has learnt a lot in a short space of time since joining the club from Toulouse in 2005 and would be my pick for the next England coach.
Finally here is how the league will look come September, if all is predicted well. Which it wasn't!
Leeds
Wigan
St Helens
Warrington
Catalan
Huddersfield
Hull KR
Bradford
Hull FC
Wakefield
Castleford
Harlequins
Salford
Crusaders RL
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